WASDE: Soybean exports unchanged

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Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 91.3 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed.

Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.570 billion due to strong foreign demand for soybean products. Soybean oil production is raised 460 million pounds on the increased crush and on a higher soybean oil extraction rate.

Soybean oil exports are projected at 1.8 billion pounds, up sharply from 1.2 billion last month on exceptionally strong November sales of just over 700 million pounds to several markets including China, Mexico, and undeclared destinations. Soybean meal exports are raised 0.3 million short tons to 8.2 million on strong sales to EU-27, Egypt, and several Asian markets including the Philippines and South Korea.

Soybean meal domestic use is reduced 0.1 million short tons to 29.4 million in line with current meat production forecasts. With soybean exports unchanged at 1.345 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are all projected lower this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.55 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $440 to $470 per short ton, down 15 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 49 to 53 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 463 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month.

Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases projected for soybeans, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed only partly offset by reductions for rapeseed and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected at 267.7 million tons, up 0.1 million. Increased production for Canada is mostly offset by lower projections for EU-27 and Paraguay.

Lower soybean production for Paraguay reflects reduced yields in line with historical production and yield revisions. Global rapeseed production is projected slightly lower as reduced estimates for Canada and EU-27 are mostly offset by a larger crop in Russia.

Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 35.7 million tons, up 0.9 million as larger crops in EU-27, Russia, and India are only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The Argentina crop is reduced on lower area reflecting the impact of excessive moisture throughout the planting season.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 115.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from Canada and increased peanut exports from India account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 66.9 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month reflecting higher rapeseed stocks in EU-27 and Australia.

Source: WASDE


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