According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is increased 20 million bushels this month to 1.635 billion. The increase reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year.
Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year’s drought. Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks.
Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, food use, and ending stocks. Increased food use partly offsets reduced imports and consumption of canola oil.
The season-average price range for soybeans is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 48 to 50 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $415 to $435 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint. Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month.
South American soybean production accounts for most of the change. Paraguay soybean production is forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 0.6 million as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area. Projected yields resulting from favorable rainfall and relatively mild temperatures are the highest for Paraguay in the past 10 years.
Uruguay soybean production is also raised this month on higher area and yield. Uruguay benefitted from the same favorable weather pattern seen in Paraguay and southern Brazil. Other changes this month include higher rapeseed production for EU-27, higher sunflowerseed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil. Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.4 million tons, down 1.4 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade.
Lower soybean exports projected for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay are only partly offset by increases for Uruguay and the United States. Lower exports in Paraguay reflect higher crush as new capacity becomes operational. Soybean imports are reduced 2 million tons to 61 million for China reflecting lower-than-expected imports for the first half of the marketing year.
Higher soybean imports are projected for several countries including Egypt, EU-27, Mexico, and Vietnam. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China