WASDE: Dip in soybean exports expected

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According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates report, total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion reflecting the slow pace of shipments and outstanding sales through November, and strong export competition from South America. Projected soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1.625 billion due to reduced domestic soybean meal consumption and a higher meal extraction rate. Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 230 million bushels, up 35 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are all projected lower this month. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price range for 2011/12 is projected at $10.70 to $12.70 per bushel, down 90 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $280 to $310 per short ton, down 30 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.6 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases projected for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected at 259.2 million tons, up 0.3 million.

Increased production for Canada and India is only partly offset by a lower projection for China. Global rapeseed production is projected higher this month mainly due to gains for Canada. Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.3 million tons to 14.2 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Higher yields account for most of the change. Rapeseed production for China is reduced 0.3 million tons due to lower yields in line with the latest indications from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and increased peanut production for China and India.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 114 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from Brazil, increased rapeseed and soybean exports from Canada, and increased peanut exports from China and India account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 75.5 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month mainly reflecting increased soybean stocks in the United States and increased rapeseed stocks in Canada.


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