WASDE: Soybean production projected up slightly
U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 92.4 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Soybean production is projected higher, partly offset by declines for peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.085 billion bushels, up 29 million due to higher yields. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million as higher supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. Other changes for 2011/12 include reduced food use of soybean oil reflecting increased use of canola and palm oil, increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel, and reduced food use for 2010/11.
Soybean crush for 2010/11 is increased 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting higher-than-expected crush reported for July. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Other changes for 2010/11 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use. Soybean oil used for production of methyl ester was reported record high for July by the U.S. Census Bureau. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.84 billion pounds, up slightly from last month.
Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2011/12. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.65 to $14.65 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range as higher corn prices provide support. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $390 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 55.5 to 59.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month. Production increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seed, and cottonseed are only partly offset by lower peanut production. Soybean production is projected higher for the United States and
India. India’s soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 10.5 million due to higher planted area. Canola production for Canada is increased 0.6 million tons to a record 13.2 million based on higher area and yield reported in the most recent report from Statistics Canada. Harvested area is projected record high despite excessive rainfall and flooding in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba that prevented some area from being planted. Canada’s canola production is also raised for both the 2009 and 2010 crops based on the same report. Other changes include higher sunflower seed production for EU-27, higher cottonseed production for China, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and lower peanut production for India.