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Market Commentary

Afternoon Comments 05/17


Continuing tightness of old crop supplies apparently sent nearby soybean futures sharply higher Friday despite the negative export demand implications of the rallying U.S. dollar. The greenback advance may also increase the chance of soybean imports during the days and weeks ahead. Deferred futures also rose despite the prospect of rainy Corn Belt weather over the weekend (and, ultimately, the potential for late-season switching to soybean plantings). July soybeans jumped 21.0 cents to $14.485/bushel at its Friday close, while July soyoil was steady at 49.52 cents/pound, and July soybean meal leapt $10.2 to $425.1/ton.
Market Info

USDA: Soybean stocks down 21 percent

USDA  |   September 28, 2012
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According to the USDA's latest Grain Stocks report, old crop soybeans stored in all positions on Sept. 1, 2012 totaled 169 million bushels, down 21 percent from Sept. 1, 2011.

Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 38.3 million bushels, down 21 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 131 million bushels, are down 21 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2012 totaled 498 million bushels, up 23 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2011 soybean production is revised to 3.09 billion bushels, up 37.5 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is revised up 70,000 acres. Harvested area is revised up 140,000 acres to 73.8 million acres. The 2011 yield, at 41.9 bushels per acre, is up 0.4 bushel from the previous estimate.

A table with 2011 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 17 of this report.


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