Soybean yield down slightly
According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 25 million based on lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is lowered 147,000 acres to 73.7 million. The soybean yield is projected at 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels.
U.S. soybean exports for 2011/12 are reduced 40 million bushels to 1.375 billion reflecting the slow pace of export sales and strong early season export competition from South America. The September 1 stock estimate of 215 million bushels indicated higher-than-expected residual use for 2010/11. As a result, the 2011/12 residual use is projected at 32 million bushels, up 9 million from the previous estimate. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is projected at $12.15 to $14.15 per bushel, down 50 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $335 to $365 per short ton, down $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 453.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 258.6 million tons, down 0.4 million mainly due to the lower U.S. crop. Soybean production is raised for India and Ukraine. Offsetting is a small reduction for Canada based on the latest survey information from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised this month based on increased yields for Russia, EU-27 and Turkey, and increased area in Argentina. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada based on lower yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is also reduced for Russia and Belarus. Other changes include increased peanut production for Argentina, WASDE-499-4 and increased cottonseed production for Brazil. Global oilseed stocks for 2011/12 are increased 0.5 million tons to 73.0 million with soybeans accounting for most of the change.
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