CBOT soy outlook: Seen up on oversold conditions, external markets

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U.S. soybean futures are set to climb, continuing Monday's recovery on oversold conditions and stability in external financial markets.

CBOT soybeans are called to open Tuesday up 13 cents to 15 cents.

In overnight trading, Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures were up 14 1/2 cents or 1.2% at $12.74 1/4 a bushel.

Prices slumped to 10-month lows Monday before rebounding, as a recovery in global financial markets on hope that European Union has a plan to tackle debt issues rekindled investor interest in taking on risk.

Soybeans are seen as fundamentally undervalued and deeply oversold after tumbling more than $2 a bushel in the last 4-weeks.

At the close on Monday, November soybean futures were down 14.6% for the month of September, rare for this primary contract to sell off so much during the month, according to a Doane Advisory Service market note. "Unless beans experience a spectacular rally during the remaining days of the month, 2011 will go down in the record books as having the third largest September decline for the nearby November contract since 1980," Doane added.

Soybean futures should draw support from traders covering some recently sold positions ahead of Friday's report on stocks in all positions as of Sept. 1 from U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Traders are also optimistic that the recent break in prices will drum up fresh export demand, particularly with fears of global financial tension easing on talk Europe has a plan to deal with its debt issues. In early trade, the U.S. dollar is sharply lower while energy and U.S. equity markets are up sharply.

Nevertheless, traders continue to brace for an influx of freshly harvested U.S. soybeans to enter the supply chain in the next month. Industry analysts anticipate traders will remain hesitant to aggressively add risk, as they anxiously await actual yield results from the autumn harvest.

Farmers had harvested 5% of the soybean crop as of Sunday, six percentage points behind average, according to data issued Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Traders had expected the soybean harvest to be about 10% complete.

Harvest is off to a slow start as weather delayed planting and development of the crop earlier in the year, analysts said. Just 58% of the soybean crop was dropping leaves as of Sunday, 10 percentage points behind normal.


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