Slow planting progress may reduce 2013 corn acreage
So, we will assume that weekly planting progress through the next three weeks of May matches the previous high for that particular week during the last 20 years. In this case the highest weekly totals for the three weeks to the end of May, including the current week, all occurred in 1993, the year of the big flood. The highs for the next three weeks are 26 percentage points for this week, 25 percentage points for next week and 12 percent for the week ending May 26. Add that to the 12 points planted as of last Sunday and add another 5 points for the period from May 26 to May 31 and 80 percent of the corn crop would be planted as we head into June. This scenario assumes aggressive planting progress well above the 5-year average levels for those weeks of 14 percent, 10 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Even so that would still leave us with about 19 million acres of corn to plant in June. That compares to about 9 million acres remaining to be planted in June 2011.
click image to zoom Good weather over the summer months can offset the effects of late planting on yields, but can’t offset the effects of the land not getting planted at all. The data so far suggests that acreage will drop below the 97.2 million acres farmers said they would plant back in March. The magnitude of the decline will depend on weather conditions over the next 4 weeks or so, but a reduction of 3 million acres or more seems likely. That reduction in planted acreage makes summer weather and actual yields very important to corn carryover supplies and prices.