The USDA reported in its monthly Feed Outlook that world coarse grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are forecast down 22.3 million tons this month to 165.5 million, a 12-percent drop. However, projected ending stocks are 2.7 million tons larger than estimated beginning stocks. Increased prices are expected to reduce demand enough so that less than half the supply reduction shows up as a drop in ending stocks. Global coarse grain production remains slightly larger than projected use.
Most of the decline in forecast 2012/13 ending coarse grain stocks is for U.S. corn, but foreign coarse grain stocks are projected down 4.5 million tons this month to 132.1 million. Foreign corn stocks are expected 3.9 million tons lower, with barley down 0.5 million and oats off 0.1 million.
China’s projected corn ending stocks are reduced 1.9 million tons to 57.9 million due to reduced import prospects. Brazil’s 2012/13 corn ending stocks are forecast down 1.0 million tons this month to 12.9 million because of record 2011/12 local marketing year exports. EU corn ending stocks are cut 0.8 million tons to 4.2 million due to reduced imports. Mexico’s corn stocks are trimmed 0.3 million tons with reduced imports.
There are small reductions in forecast ending stocks of corn for Canada, Paraguay, Peru, and South Africa. India’s corn stocks are forecast up 0.3 million tons this month as high prices are expected to dampen domestic demand. Barley ending stocks are forecast down 0.2 million tons each for Ukraine and Argentina and are reduced slightly for Russia.