World coarse grain production prospects plummet

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click image to zoom According to the USDA's Feed Outlook report, global coarse grain production forecast for 2012/13 is down 48.0 million tons this month to 1,183.6 million, mostly due to sharply reduced prospects for U.S. corn. To put the U.S. corn crop cut into perspective, this month’s decline is more than twice as big as Argentina’s entire last corn crop. Foreign coarse grain production prospects for 2012/13 are also reduced this month, but not dramatically, down 2.1 million tons to 839.7 million.

Foreign corn production is projected up 1.5 million tons to 575.8 million, mostly due to expanded area planted in the EU, but barley prospects are cut 3.2 million tons mostly because of problems in Ukraine and Russia. Foreign oats, millet, and rye are forecast slightly lower this month, but sorghum production projections are unchanged and mixed grain increased slightly.

EU corn production in 2012/13 is forecast to reach 65.5 million tons, up 1.3 million this month due to increased planted area reported for Greece, Poland, Hungary, Germany, the Czech Republic, France, and Slovakia. Yield prospects are increased slightly for Poland but trimmed for Greece, Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, based on recent temperatures and precipitation. Increased corn area planted is also reported for Canada, boosting production prospects 0.4 million tons to 13.0 million. However, corn yields in Peru are reported lower, trimming projected production 0.2 million tons to 1.6 million.

Barley production in Ukraine for 2012/13 is reduced 1.5 million tons to 6.0 million. Poor fall emergence and severe winter cold contributed to winter-kill and area abandonment of winter barley. A hot, dry spring in Southern Ukraine has reduced yield prospects. In Russia, barley production is cut 1.0 million tons this month to 15.5 million. According to planting progress reports, spring barley planted area did not expand as much as earlier expected. Also, dry hot weather in parts of the Volga District reduced expected yields for both barley and millet.

These unfavorable growing conditions extend into Northwestern Kazakhstan, reducing barley yield prospects and trimming production 0.2 million tons to 1.8 million. A Statistics Canada survey revealed lower than expected barley area planted. Although favorable early growing conditions boost yield prospects slightly, 2012/13 production is forecast down 0.5 million tons to 8.5 million. Oats and rye area are also reported lower, trimming oats production 0.3 million tons to 3.0 million, and reducing rye prospects slightly. Canadian mixed grain area is up, boosting production by a small amount.

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