World coarse grain production prospects increase

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According to the USDA's Feed Outlook, global coarse grain production in 2011/12 is forecast up 1.5 million tons this month to 1,143.7 million. World corn production is up 0.9 million tons to a record 865.0 million. Barley, oats, rye, and mixed grain production prospects are virtually unchanged this month, but millet is up 1.5 million tons to 33.7 million, and sorghum is down 0.9 million tons to 59.8 million.

India reported revised production for harvests from the past monsoon season and reported planted area for some dry-season (mostly irrigated) crops. Millet production for 2011/12 is up 1.5 million tons to 12.5 million based on increased area estimated for both 2010/11 and 2011/12, as well as good yields again this year. The previous year’s millet production was revised up 0.7 million tons to 13.3 million.

India’s corn area is also increased for both years and yields are raised for 2010/11, increasing production 0.5 million tons each year to 21.5 million tons for 2011/12 prospects and to 21.7 million for 2010/11. The same reports indicate lower sorghum area for both years but an increase in estimated yield for 2010/11 and reduced yield prospects for 2011/12. Sorghum production for 2010/11 is increased 0.3 million tons to 7.0 million, but 2011/12 is forecast down 0.7 million tons this month to 6.1 million.

Brazil’s corn production projected for 2011/12 is up 1.0 million tons this month to 62.0 million. Area is increased 0.3 million hectares to 15.3 million as prospects for second-crop corn plantings in Parana are supported by attractive prices. Average yield is reduced slightly as some first-crop corn has been damaged by above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

Argentina’s 2011/12 corn crop remains projected at 22.0 million tons as recent good rains have stabilized yield prospects, especially for late-planted corn. However, an analysis of 2010/11 supply and demand reveals corn production was larger than previously estimated, up 1.3 million tons this month to a record 23.8 million tons, based on increased area. Chile’s 2011/12 corn production is projected up 0.1 million tons to 1.6 million based on higher reported area and yield.

There are small increases this month for corn production in Australia, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan. Partly offsetting are reduced 2011/12 corn production prospects for South Africa and Ecuador. South Africa reports larger-than-expected corn area, as prices have been attractive, but spotty rains and above normal temperatures have cut yield prospects. Corn production is projected down 0.5 million tons to 12.0 million. For Ecuador, excessive rains have reduced both area and yield prospects, cutting production 0.3 million tons to 0.9 million. There is also a small reduction in corn production prospects for Uruguay.

For 2011/12 barley production prospects, a 0.1-million-ton reduction each for South Korea and China are offset by similar-sized increases for Azerbaijan and India. For sorghum, in addition to the India change, production prospects are reduced 0.2 million tons in Argentina to 4.2 million, with the effects of earlier drought reducing yield potential. There is also a small increase in sorghum production for Australia and a reduction for Uruguay.

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Global coarse grain beginning stocks forecast for 2011/12 are almost unchanged this month. World corn beginning stocks are up 0.2 million tons to 129.1 million, mostly due to an increase for Argentina caused by a significant increase in estimated 2010/11 production. Sorghum and millet beginning stocks for 2011/12 are up slightly due to increased 2010/11 production in India. However, global 2011/12 barley beginning stocks are down 0.3 million tons this month, mostly because of reduced 2010/11 production for China.


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