According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report, U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/2012 are projected lower with reduced corn and oats production more than offsetting small increases for sorghum and barley. Corn production for 2011/2012 is forecast 123 million bushels lower with the national average yield forecast 1.4 bushels per acre below last month. At 146.7 bushels per acre, this year’s yield would be the lowest since 2003/04. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels with the smaller crop and further reductions in the outlook for broiler production. Projected U.S. ending stocks are lowered 23 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel.
Other 2011/12 changes include small adjustments to projected ending stocks for sorghum, barley, and oats, reflecting this month’s production changes. Projected sorghum exports are reduced 10 million bushels as sales and shipments continue to lag earlier expectations. A 10-million-bushel increase in expected sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is offsetting. Projected farm prices for sorghum are unchanged, but projected ranges are narrowed for barley and oats, and the barley farm price is projected lower based on reported malting barley prices.
Changes for 2010/11 corn mostly reflect a 13-million-bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use with usage raised for sweeteners, starch, and ethanol, all based on the latest available data. In addition, there are small adjustments to imports and exports based on August trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau. These changes reduce 2010/11 feed and residual use 11 million bushels.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower with reduced U.S. corn production and lower EU-27 rye production more than offsetting higher Argentina sorghum production, higher EU-27 corn, barley, oats production, and higher Kazakhstan barley production. Corn production is lowered for a number of countries with the biggest reduction for Mexico where production is lowered 3.5 million tons. A late start to the summer rainy season and an early September freeze in parts of the southern plateau corn belt reduced yields for Mexico’s summer crop. Lower expected area for the winter crop, which will be planted in November and December, also reduces 2011/12 corn production prospects. Reservoir levels are well below those necessary to sustain a normal seasonal draw down in the northwestern corn areas which normally account for 70 to 80 percent of Mexico’s winter corn crop.
Increases in 2011/12 corn production for a number of countries partly offset reductions in Mexico, the United States, and Serbia. Corn production is raised 2.5 million tons for China with increases in both area and yields in line with the latest indications from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.9 million tons mostly reflecting higher reported output in France, Romania, and Austria. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons with higher expected area. FSU-12 production is raised 0.7 million tons with higher reported yields in Belarus and Russia. There are also a number of production changes this month to corn and sorghum production in Sub-Saharan Africa which reduce coarse grain production for the region.
World coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised with increased global imports and exports of barley and corn. Barley imports are raised for Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan with exports increased for EU-27 and Russia. Corn imports are increased for China, Mexico, and South Korea. Higher expected corn exports from Argentina and EU-27 support these increases. Higher sorghum exports from Argentina offset the reduction in expected U.S. sorghum shipments. Global corn consumption is mostly unchanged with higher industrial use and feeding in China and higher corn feeding in EU-27 and South Korea offsetting reductions in Mexico and the United States. Global corn ending stocks are projected 1.6 million tons lower with reductions in EU-27, Mexico, Brazil, and the United States outweighing increases for China and Argentina.