WASDE: Corn ending stocks projected higher

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According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report (released Nov. 9), U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected slightly higher with small increases forecast for corn and sorghum production and higher projected corn imports. Forecast corn production for 2012/13 is raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bushel increase in the corn yield to 122.3 bushels per acre. Sorghum production is forecast 4 million bushels higher, also on a higher yield.

Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting expectations for more shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt. Corn food, seed, and industrial use for 2012/13 is raised 17 million bushels with higher use projected for sweeteners and starch.

Corn ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million. The season-average farm price for corn, at $6.95 to $8.25 per bushel, is projected 20 cents lower at the midpoint, mostly reflecting a lower-than-expected September price and the continuation of weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the past month.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.8 million tons higher with larger corn carryin stocks for EU-27 and Mexico, and higher corn production in the United States. Corn production for 2011/12 is raised 0.9 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively, for EU-27 and Mexico.

Additional increases for South Africa, Guatemala, and Brazil boost global corn production 2.7 million tons to a record 880.5 million for 2011/12. Global coarse grain production for 2012/13 is raised 0.9 million tons with a number of largely offsetting foreign changes made this month. Global 2012/13 corn output is raised 0.7 million tons to 839.7 million. Despite the sharp drop yearto- year, 2012/13 production is projected to be the second highest on record supported by record high foreign output.

Corn production is raised 0.6 million tons for Guatemala, 0.5 million tons for Russia, and 0.4 million tons each for Indonesia and Turkey. Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tons for EU-27 and 0.8 million tons for Mexico. Sorghum production is raised 0.4 million tons for Argentina, but lowered the same amount for Mexico. A 0.2-million-ton increase in EU-27 barley production is mostly offset by small reductions for Argentina and Algeria.

EU-27 oats production is lowered 0.3 million tons, but rye production is raised a similar amount.

Global 2012/13 corn imports are raised 2.8 million tons with increases for EU-27, United States, South Korea, and Mexico.

Russia corn exports are raised 0.3 million tons for the 2012/13 marketing year. Also supporting higher 2012/13 marketing year imports are higher 2011/12 marketing year exports for Brazil and South Africa, up 2.0 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively.

(The 2011/12 marketing years for Brazil and South Africa run through the end of February 2013 and April 2013, respectively.)

Sorghum imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.2 million tons for Mexico with exports for Argentina raised the same amount. Barley imports for 2012/13 are raised 0.5 million tons for Iran supported by increases for EU-27 and Russia exports. Global corn feeding is raised 3.1 million tons with increases for EU-27, Indonesia, South Korea, Guatemala, and Russia. World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.7 million tons higher at 118.0 million.


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