Revisions to 2011/12 trim foreign beginning stocks for 2012/13

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Brazil’s corn supply and demand for 2011/12 starts in March 2012 and overlaps the 2012/13 year for Northern Hemisphere countries. The second-crop corn in Brazil is still being finalized, and the late rains boosted yields more than previously forecast, increasing corn production 1.0 million tons this month to 70.0 million.

Based on recent competitive pricing, 2011/12 exports are increased 2.0 million tons to a forecast record 14.0 million. For the October-September trade years, both 2011/12 and 2012/13 are raised 1.0 million tons. This leaves Brazil’s 2011/12 ending stocks down 1.0 million tons to 13.1 million.

India’s corn exports for 2011/12 are raised 1.4 million tons this month to 3.8 million, as increased world prices have shifted corn from domestic use to exports. The increased export pace is also expected to reduce ending stocks 0.2 million tons to 0.5 million.

Foreign coarse grain ending stocks for 2011/12 (beginning stocks for 2012/13) are down 1.1 million tons this month as other changes are mostly small and offsetting. The reduced beginning stocks and production combine to trim foreign 2012/13 coarse grain supplies 3.5 million tons this month.

Source: USDA Feed Outlook


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