Global coarse grain production in 2011/12 is expected to increase 62.2 million tons in 2011/12, reaching 1,146.8 million tons. These early projections assume trend yields for most countries because most coarse grain crops are not advanced enough in their planting or growth cycle to have expectations that deviate from trend. Since global average yields in 2010/11 fell below trend, a return to trend yields in 2011/12 boosts the global average 3.4 percent. Information on plantings or planting intentions sums to an increase in harvested area of 2.0 percent as producers respond to strong prices and profitable expected returns. The relatively modest increase in area reflects high prices for competing crops as well as recent record corn prices.
World corn production is projected up 6 percent in 2011/12 to 867.7 million tons. Global corn area, up 3 percent, is expected to expand slightly faster than yield, up 3 percent. Foreign corn production, up 5 percent to 524.7 million tons, is expected to expand somewhat more slowly than U.S. production. Foreign area is expected to increase 3 percent, responding to attractive prices, but a return to trend only boosts foreign yields 2 percent.
China, the world’s second largest corn producer, is forecast to increase corn production 4.0 million tons to 172.0 million. Both area and yield are expected to increase very modestly, just more than 1 percent. Although corn prices are attractive and the Government is providing support to corn farmers, the high prices of some competing crops, such as cotton, are expected to limit the area expansion of corn. Trend corn yields in 2011/12 are up slightly from the previous year but 3 percent below the record in 2008/09.
EU corn production in 2011/12 is projected up 3.8 million tons to 59.3 million due to a 7.5-percent expansion in area. Area expansion is faster in countries like Romania, with lower expected corn yields, than in France or Italy, where corn yields are high and stable because of irrigation. Exceptionally favorable rains boosted corn yields in 2010 in Romania and Bulgaria, so a return to trend yields results in a small decline for the EU in 2011/12.
Brazil’s corn production in 2011/12 is very much a projection as the 2010/11 second-crop corn has not been harvested yet. Corn production in 2011/12 is expected to match the previous year at 55.0 million tons. Area is forecast slightly lower as the prices of cotton and soybeans are expected to be attractive. Yield growth is expected to offset the reduced area.
Argentina, also a Southern Hemisphere corn producer and where planting is months away, is projected to increase corn production 4.0 million tons to 26.0 million. Area is forecast up 6 percent as corn prices are expected to be attractive, and total cropped area is expected to continue to increase at the expense of pasture. Corn yields are projected up 11 percent from 2010/11, when dry, hot weather when part of the crop was tasseling hurt yields, but down 9 percent from the record level in 2009/10.
Mexico’s corn production in 2011/12 is projected to reach a record 24.5 million tons, up 3.0 million from the previous year when an exceptional freeze damaged the winter corn crop in Sinaloa (the 2010/11 corn crop is reduced 0.5 million tons this month to 21.5 million based on the latest evaluation of loses in the winter crop). Area in 2011/12 is projected up 11 percent as record corn prices are expected to encourage plantings. Trend yields are expected to reach a record 3.33 tons per hectare, slightly higher than reached in 2008/09.
India’s corn production in 2011/12 is forecast up 0.5 million tons to 21.0 million. Corn area is expected to continue expanding slowly to a record level, and yields are forecast at a near-record level.
Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to produce another bumper corn crop, 56.0 million tons, up 0.4 million from the previous year. Increased area is expected to more than offset slightly reduced yield prospects, as trend yields imply a modest reduction for several countries. South Africa is projected to produce 12.5 million tons, up 0.5 million due to small increases in both area and expected yields.
Corn production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to reach 25.3 million tons, up 6.8 million. A return to trend yields and a normal planted to harvested ratio is expected to increase area and yield across the region with a rebound from drought and burning temperatures last summer. Moreover, relative prices and expected returns to producers favor corn more than most other crops. Ukraine is forecast to produce a record 14.5 million tons, up 2.6 million from the previous year. Russia is projected to more than double production from droughtdevastated levels, reaching 6.5 million tons.
Canada is projected to produce 11.5 million tons of corn, down 0.2 million from the previous year’s record, as expanded area is not likely to fully offset a return to trend yields. The Philippines is projected to increase corn production 0.2 million tons to 7.2 million with corn prices supporting a small increase expected in both area and yield. Serbia is also projected to increase corn production 0.2 million tons in 2011/12, reaching 7.0 million. Increased area in response to attractive corn prices is expected to more than offset the lower yields implied by a return to trend.
Global barley production is projected to reach 131.5 million tons in 2011/12, up 8.0 million mostly due to improved yield prospects. Harvested area is projected up 0.6 percent mostly due to normal weather allowing a return to a normal planted-toharvested ratio is some key countries. Barley prices, especially for feed barley, are not high enough to boost expected returns in most countries to levels that would sustain planted area. A return to trend yields boosts the world average 5.7 percent.
Most of the increase in global barley production is expected in the FSU, with a rebound from severe drought boosting output 6.5 million tons to 27.5 million. More than three quarters of the FSU barley production increase is forecast in Russia. Canada is projected to boost barley production 0.9 million tons to 8.5 million as more favorable planting conditions in some regions boost area enough to more than offset a trend yield down slightly from a year earlier. In the EU, a return to trend boosts yields in most countries, more than offsetting a small decline in area. inter rains in Spain have been favorable, boosting production prospects. EU production is projected up 0.8 million tons to 53.9 million. Good winter rains extended into Morocco, boosting yield prospects and supporting a 0.5-million-ton increase in production to 3.1 million.
Winter rains across Iran started late, and barley production is projected down 0.5 million tons to 3.0 million. Barley area is projected lower in Australia, trimming production prospects 0.3 million tons to 9.0 million. Barley area is also reported lower in Turkey, reducing production 0.2 million tons to 5.7 million.
World sorghum production is projected to decline 2.5 million tons to 62.8 million. Much of the decline is projected in Sub-Saharan Africa where the previous year’s exceptionally good yields are expected to return to trend, cutting production prospects 1.8 million tons to 27.3 million. Reductions are likely to be most significant for Niger and Sudan. North American sorghum production prospects are down for both the United States and Mexico, with reduced area in Mexico trimming production prospects 0.3 million tons to 6.8 million. However, Argentina is forecast to boost sorghum area and production, up 0.2 million tons to 4.0 million.
Global millet production is forecast down 1.6 million tons to 31.7 million. Abovetrend yields across much of Sub-Saharan Africa are not expected to repeat in 2011/12. Also, millet area in India is expected to decline, dropping production 0.7 million tons to 11.0 million.
World oats production in 2011/12 is projected up 3.0 million tons to 22.8 million. The rebound from drought is expected to boost FSU production 2.0 million tons to 6.6 million. Canadian area is projected up sharply, boosting oats production prospects 1.0 million tons to 3.3 million.
Global rye production is forecast up 2.5 million tons to 14.5 million, supported by the rebound from drought in the FSU increasing production there by 2.1 million tons to 5.5 million. Also, a recovery in EU rye yields is expected to boost production 0.4 million tons to 8.2 million.
World mixed grain (mostly triticale) is projected up 0.4 million tons to 15.9 million, with improved yields expected in Poland.