It appears for Ohio February-April will be the wettest on record back to 1895! The previous record was 1964. The next wettest was 2008.
The period from 1895-1964 had 11/69 times with a state average of 12+ inches (16% of the time) while since 1964 we had none from 1965-2007 (0/42). We have had two since 2008 - 2/46 (4%). The mean over the period of record is 11%.
We are regressing to the mean!
First, let's review April final numbers.
The following is the outlook for the next two weeks which is not much different than the outlook issued last week:
May 16-22 - Temperatures will average 2 degrees below normal. However, temperatures will average 10 degrees below normal the first half of the week and 6 degrees above normal for late week into the weekend. It will be a tale of two-halves. Rainfall will be near normal around an inch but will be highly variable. Some areas especially southwest may see 0.50 inches or less while some places in the northeast and east could exceed 1.5-2 inches. Most of the rain will be through Wednesday or early Thursday before we dry out for the second half of the week into much of the weekend.
May 23-29 - Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal. Confidence on temperatures is rather high. As for rainfall, confidence is low to moderate as there is uncertainty in how strong the high pressure will be over the Southeast extending north into the Ohio Valley. Rainfall will likely be at least normal (an inch) but will be highly variable, 0.5 to 2+ inches. It looks like the heaviest rain will fall in the western corn/soybean belt. There is a chance we will return to above normal rainfall for the second half of next week.
May 30-June 5 - Temperatures will remain above normal with rainfall normal or above normal. Heaviest rain will likely continue to shift to the western corn/soybean belt.