Source: University of Nebraska

Pacific Equatorial sea surface temperatures cooled dramatically during the past three months and La Nina conditions are now firmly established. The extent of the cold pool now encompasses the region from South America westward through the dateline with the depth of the cold pool extending over 200 meters in the central Pacific. Numerical models indicate further strengthening of this event through the end of the year.

The significant increase in hurricane activity during September within the Atlantic basin can be directly attributed to this unfolding event as waves exiting western Africa and moving into the eastern Atlantic are encountering reduced wind shear aloft. During the past three weeks, virtually every wave exiting the African coast has formed into a tropical system. Four systems have already obtained major hurricane status and this trend will likely continue through September.

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