The USDA released its new 10-year agricultural projections report, "USDA Agricultural Projections to 2018," last week. USDA publishes the projections each year in February.
This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2018. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather and international developments.
The report assumes that there are no shocks due to abnormal weather, further outbreaks of plant or animal diseases, or other factors affecting global supply and demand. Provisions of current law, including the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), are assumed to remain in effect through the projections period.
The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the report provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions.
The projections in this report were prepared in October 2008 through December 2008, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses.
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