Corn harvest not as “apocalyptic” as feared
Among other advisors, Allendale, Inc., on Oct. 5 said it estimated the average U.S. corn yield at 149.7 bushels an acre, up 2 bushels from the McHenry, Ill.-based firm’s previous forecast. Allendale projected the harvest at 12.56 billion bushels. Earlier this week, Informa Economics, Inc., a Memphis-based consultant, forecast an average yield of 149.5 bushels an acre, according to trade reports.
With harvest results from across the Midwest ranging widely, it’s still too soon to get a firm handle on the size of the corn crop, some analysts said. Corn fields in south-central Minnesota produced estimated yields as high as 215 bushels an acre, while some areas of southwest Illinois were near 100 bushels an acre, according to an Oct. 6 report from AgTraderTalk, LLC.
“There simply aren’t enough yield updates reported as yet to make informed comparisons with prior year farmer yield reports,” R.J. O’Brien & Associates analyst Rich Feltes said in an Oct. 6 report. “Traders appear equally divided as to whether USDA’s October corn yield will be higher or lower” than the agency’s September forecast, he said.
December corn futures may rally as high as $6.50 as the market rebounds from the recent sell-off, Feltes said. Still, “we lack a strong directional conviction until market can access (October) crop report,” he added.