Doane tour provides corn production estimate
Doane’s 157.5 bushel yield does imply a below trend ear weight, but a repeat of last season’s ear weight would pull the national yield down to the low 150s. Also, our production estimate assumes harvested acreage at 83.968 million acres, down from USDA’s June estimate at 84.888 million.
We expect an adjustment lower reflecting the excessive rainfall in the northwestern Corn Belt this spring, river flooding as well as losses in the drought areas of the southern Plains. USDA’s August estimate provides a benchmark for production and yield.
On average USDA’s August estimate is about 70 million bushels below the final. In absolute terms, the error or difference from August to the final production estimate is nearly 400 million bushels. Last season’s 900 million bushel downward adjustment from August to January is more the exception rather than the rule.