The last time corn traded above $4 per bu. was in October 2015. Farmers want to see a return to those prices (and higher), but when will enough factors align to push prices back up?

Kevin McNew with Grain Hedge says a big obstacle is in the way right now – the current global stocks-to-use ratio.

“We are seeing levels in the U.S. that we haven’t seen since the decade of the 1990s,” he says. “When you look at both corn and soybean carryout relative to use, it is exceptionally high.”

McNew says there were about six years in the 1990s when socks relative to use was as high as it is now. That prompted him to investigate price trends in those years from February to the end of March. Here’s what he learned.

A strong dollar, high stocks and stiff competition abroad are all working against higher prices for old crop corn right now, he concludes.