The grain markets were mixed overnight after yesterday’s Crop Progress report and ahead of today’s 11am Acreage and Stocks reports. Corn crop conditions fell by 3% to 68%, compared to 75% good to excellent last year and was in the range of expectations. The eastern corn belt saw the steepest drop. Ohio corn dropped 19% good to excellent. The average estimate for corn acreage and stocks is 89.173 million acres, compared to the 89.199 March USDA number, and 4.512 billion bushels for June 1 stocks, compared to 3.852 last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 350 points, nearly 2%, Monday, on fears about the Greek debt default. The US Dollar Index is up 42 to 95.21. July corn futures advanced 3.25 cents to $3.865/bushel before the open Tuesday, while December was up 2.5 cents to $4.0475.
The soy complex traded lower overnight. Soybean crop ratings fell 2% to 63% good to excellent which was in line with trade expectations. Soybean conditions in Ohio dropped sharply 11%. Soybean planting progress increased by 4% to 94% which was 1% faster than the trade was expecting and 3% behind the five year average. The average trade estimate for the June 1 stocks is 674 million bushels, compared to 405 last year. The average estimate for soybean acreage is 85.187 million acres compared the 84.635 million acres the USDA projected in March. July soybeans lost 5.25 cents to $9.9725/bushel early Tuesday morning, while July soyoil edged lower .28 cents to 32.77 cents/pound, and July meal slid $.3 to $341.6/ton.
Wheat futures are firmer Tuesday morning after rising to near six-month highs yesterday. The average trade estimate for June 1 wheat stocks is 713 million bushels compared to 590 million last June. The all-wheat estimate for acreage is 55.651 million acres, compared to 55.367 in March. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 41% and spring wheat conditions rose 1% to 72%. Winter wheat harvest climbed to 38% from 19% but is running well behind normal is Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. July CBOT wheat futures gained 2.5 cents to $5.83/bushel at dawn Tuesday, while July KC wheat advanced 3.5 cents to $5.75/bushel, and July MWE climbed .5 cents to $6.045.
Live cattle futures traded higher Monday after dropping last week. Last week’s sell off might have encouraged traders to cover their short positions ahead of month-end. Fundamentals still suggest weakness in demand and thereby weaker prices for the livestock complex. Today, futures may weaken as cash prices soften. Beef cutouts dropped sharply Monday after gaining substantially in recent weeks to capture pre-July 4th margins. August cattle futures rose 1.425 cents to 149.95 cents/pound at the close Monday, while December futures climbed 1.15 cents to 153.37. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle futures rose 1.95 cents to 219.20 cents/pound, and November feeders gained 1.90 cents to 215.05.
Lean hog futures were mixed Monday after they firmed up on Friday ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report. The numbers from Friday were reportedly bearish for nearby contracts and bullish for latter futures months. Larger supplies of hogs in the 120 to 179 and 180 and over ranges could keep pressure on the nearby. Kept for breeding numbers may be supportive in the deferred months. Since the trade expects that farrowing will ease in coming months thereby tightening supply, deferred lean hog futures could be firmer today, while pressure may continue on the nearby. August hog futures slid .825 cents to 74.625 cents/pound Monday, while December gained 2.00 cents to 63.22.