The large 2014/15 (September/August) U.S. soybean crop 18 percent above the previous record has led to a record pace for U.S. soybean export sales commitments, including sales to China, the largest U.S. market for soybeans.
The 2014/15 U.S. soybean crop is estimated at 107.7 million tons and total marketing year exports are forecast at a record 47.9 million tons.
Cumulative export shipments have accelerated this fall, with record U.S. export inspections of soybeans in October and again in November.
China accounts for most of the gains with 72 percent of U.S. export shipments to date, although substantial gains have been seen for other importers, including the EU, Turkey, and Taiwan.
Actual U.S. export shipments are now growing faster than export sales and due to this robust pace, future shipments could moderate without another round of new sales.
Even with the outlook for record U.S. exports, the large U.S harvest, coupled with expected record Brazilian and Argentine harvests, is forecast to lead to a 23-percent decline in the U.S. farm price of soybeans to about $10/bushel for 2014/15.
Find additional analysis in Soybeans and Oil Crops Outlook: December 2014.