U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 120.2 million tons, up 4.8 million from last month due to a higher soybean production forecast. Soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast at 4,060 million bushels, up 180 million due to increased yields. Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 48.9 bushels per acre is 2.2 bushels above last month and 0.9 bushels above last year’s record.
With higher production only partly offset by lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2016/17 are projected at a record 4,346 million bushels. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels based on expected higher domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean exports are raised 30 million bushels to 1,950 million. Despite higher use, soybean ending stocks are projected at 330 million bushels, up 40 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is forecast at $8.35 to $9.85 per bushel, down 40 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $305 to $345 per short ton, down 20 dollars at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound.
U.S. changes for 2015/16 include increased soybean crush and exports, and lower ending stocks. The soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,900 million reflecting increased domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean exports are raised 85 million bushels to 1,880 million as unusually large outstanding old-crop sales are confirmed by the latest shipment data. With increased use, 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 255 million bushels, down 95 million from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 543.5 million tons, up 7.0 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at a record 330.4 million tons, up 4.5 million. The U.S. production increase is partly offset by reductions for both India and Ukraine with the latest planting data for both countries indicating lower forecasts for harvested area.
Rapeseed production is raised for Canada where abundant moisture and favorable temperatures in July helped to boost yield prospects. Partly offsetting is a reduction for EU rapeseed production on excessive moisture in key growing areas, particularly in France. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Russia and Ukraine, increased peanut production for India and Senegal, increased cottonseed production for China, and reduced cottonseed production for India. For 2015/16, global vegetable oil trade is expected to decline 1.5 million tons from last month due to lower palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Global oilseed supplies for 2016/17 are raised 8.1 million tons with increased production and higher beginning stocks. With larger supplies only partly offset by increased crush, 2016/17 global oilseed stocks are projected at 80.6 million tons, up 4.5 million from last month.