U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is forecast at 117.7 million tons, up 2.5 million from the previous estimate on increased soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,981 million bushels, up 93.6 million on higher yields. The soybean yield is forecast at 48.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Soybean supplies are projected up 2 percent from the October forecast. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,890 million on higher meal exports. Soybean exports are also raised with additional supplies. Ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels to 465 million. If realized, ending stocks would be the highest since 2006/07.
Soybean oil balance sheet changes for 2015/16 include increased beginning stocks and production, reduced imports and domestic disappearance, and increased exports and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect final soybean oil stocks for 2014/15 as reported in the November 2015 NASS Oilseed Crushings report. Domestic disappearance for 2015/16 is reduced in line with lower domestic use estimated for 2014/15. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 2,295 million pounds, up 265 million from last month’s forecast.
Soybean and soybean meal prices for 2015/16 are reduced this month. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price range is projected at $8.15 to $9.65 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $300 to $340 per short ton, down $10.00 on both ends. Soybean oil prices are projected at and 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Lower sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production account for most of the change with nearly offsetting increases projected for soybeans and rapeseed. Global soybean production is projected at 321.0 million tons, up 0.5 million, with the larger U.S. crop only partly offset by reductions for India, South Africa, and Uruguay.
The India soybean crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 9.5 million on lower projected yields. Inconsistent rainfall during the growing season and late-season heat results in below-average yields for the third consecutive year.
Global rapeseed production is raised to 67.1 million tons. Increased production projected for Canada is only partly offset by reductions for Australia, Pakistan, and Russia. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.8 million tons to 39.7 million on lower forecasts for Argentina, Pakistan, and EU. Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for several countries including Pakistan, China, and EU.
Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 147.0 million tons, up 2.6 million from last month. With higher soybean imports projected for China, exports are raised for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. Canada rapeseed exports are also raised with increased China imports. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.1 million tons, down 2.2 million from last month.
Soybean stocks account for most of the change with reductions for Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, India, and Canada only partly offset by an increase for the United States.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, November 2015