U.S. soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 4,091 million bushels, up 5 million on increased imports. Soybean exports and crush projections are unchanged at 1,790 million and 1,795 million bushels, respectively. Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, and residual use is raised based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 370 million bushels, down 15 million from last month.
Soybean oil supplies are increased this month with higher imports more than offsetting slightly lower production resulting from a lower oil extraction rate. Soybean oil domestic disappearance is raised on increased food use which offsets reductions for palm oil and canola oil consumption. Despite lower projected soybean oil exports, ending stocks are projected at 1.38 billion pounds, down 125 million from last month.
Projected prices for soybeans and soybean oil are reduced this month. The range for the season-average soybean price is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint to $9.60 to $10.60 per bushel based on marketings to date and lower expected prices for the second half of the marketing year. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30 to 33 cents per pound, down 0.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, unchanged at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.8 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month. Gains for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed more than offset lower projections for peanuts, copra, palm kernel, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected at 315.5 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month. Argentina soybean production is forecast at 57.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month on higher yields resulting from favorable rainfall and mild temperatures across much of the growing area.
India soybean production is reduced 0.7 million tons to 9.8 million reflecting below average yields resulting from an unusually short monsoon season. Uruguay soybean production is raised this month on higher harvested area. Changes for other crops include higher rapeseed production for India; higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina, Bolivia, and Russia; lower peanut production for Vietnam; lower cottonseed production for India and Australia; and lower copra production for the Philippines.
Palm oil production is reduced for Malaysia on excessive rainfall in December and January and also for Thailand on dry conditions in the southern producing areas.
Source: USDA, WASDE, April 9, 2015