This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, lower stocks, and higher prices.
Corn production is forecast at 15.093 billion bushels, down 61 million from last month. Corn supplies for 2016/17 are lowered from last month but are still forecast at a record 16.859 billion bushels, as a smaller crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks due to a reduction in 2015/16 exports.
Feed and residual use for 2016/17 is lowered 25 million bushels with a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are unchanged from last month, reflecting the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the world market. Corn ending stocks are down from last month but, if realized, would still be the highest since 1987/88.
The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $2.90 to $3.50 per bushel.
Sorghum production for 2016/17 is forecast 14 million bushels above last month on higher yields. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel, raised 5 cents on each end from last month.
Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast down 2.8 million tons to 1,319.7 million, but still above the record reached in 2014/15. The 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher consumption, larger trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month.
Brazil corn production is raised, as relatively favorable corn prices in southern Brazil are expected to boost first-crop planted area at the expense of soybeans. Barley production is raised for Argentina, Australia, and Canada. China corn production is lowered, based on drier-than-normal conditions during July and August in western Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia.
EU corn and barley production are reduced; even with lower barley production, EU internal market prices are expected to favor greater barley feeding, offsetting reduced corn feeding. Russia barley production is down based on lower-than-expected yields for spring barley.
Corn exports are raised for Brazil with larger projected supplies for the local marketing year beginning in March 2017.
Corn imports are raised for China, reflecting updated expectations of trade by non-state importers. China’s barley imports are lowered as the pace of trade has slowed in recent months, despite global feed barley prices that are well below a year ago. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are lowered 0.7 million tons from last month. Stock declines are the largest in Argentina and the EU, with the former reflecting expectations of larger exports during 2015/16.
Global corn stocks, at 219.5 million, are down from last month but still projected to be record high.