USDA on Tuesday released crop numbers that were largely in line with analysts' expectations for the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports.
The biggest surprise was Brazil’s reported loss of nearly 10 percent of its corn crop, which is certain to boost demand for U.S. corn exports, according to analysts.
Following the report, corn was trading 3 to 5 cents higher, soybeans were up 13 to 15 cents, and wheat also rose, with SRW up 4 to 5 cents, HRW narrowly mixed and spring wheat about a penny higher, Pro Farmer reported.
The trading activity partly reflected the lack of surprises in the report and concern over weather, according to analysts.
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group, speaking during a MGEX post-report conference call, said USDA releases “lined up pretty well … with what we were seeing.”
As a result, “the market stopped caring about the USDA report five minutes after it came out,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale. “Now all the focus is on weather.”
Here are some key numbers from Tuesday’s report:
Corn: Production rose 110 million bushels in 2016/17. Old-crop ending stocks at 1.7 billion bushels, were slightly below the average trade expectation of 1.806 billion. New-crop ending stocks were 2.081 billion bushels, lower than the average trade forecast of 2.205 billion bushels. Corn exports were projected 100 million bushels higher on reduced competition from Brazil. Projected corn use for ethanol was lowered 25 million bushels in line with changes for 2015/16.
Soybeans: Despite record acreage, a rise in exports and crush are keeping soybean supplies where the trade expects. New-crop soybean ending stocks were 290 million bushels, slightly more than the average trade guess of 287 million bushels. Old-crop ending stocks were 350 million bushels, slightly less than the average trade guess of 352 million bushels.
Wheat: Exports were raised to 925 million bushels, the highest in three years. USDA projects ending wheat stocks of 1.105 billion bushels, the highest level since the 1988/89 crop year. However, that was slightly less than the trade’s expectation of 1.107 billion bushels. Total world wheat production was now projected at a record 738.5 million tons.
Don Roose of U.S. Commodities said the report’s biggest surprise was Brazil’s corn production loss of 7 1/2 million tons, or 300 million bushels.
“That’s almost 10% of the crop, including combination of the safrhna and regular corn crops,” Roose observed.
Nelson pointed out that even though the report “was bullish on corn, mixed on beans,” corn was trading up a few cents while beans soared19 cents after the report was issued.
“The trade is saying it’s too late (for changes in) corn yield ... it’s concerned about bean yield, concerned about the weather,” Nelson said.
Traders are looking at the forecast one week ahead and assuming that heat will last for a few weeks, he added.