Trade expectations for corn production is for a slight increase from USDA's most recent estimate of 11.741 billion bushels. The average trade estimate by Dow Jones for production is 11.753 billion. Revisions to supply and demand forecasts will hinge largely on the production figure, but December 1 corn stocks will be used to calculate implied feed and residual use for the Sep-Nov period. The average estimate for December 1 corn stocks is 9.292 billion bushels.



The soybean production estimate is not expected to change much from the most recent 3.15 billion bushel estimate. The average trade estimate is 3.149 billion, which would remain a record large crop. December 1 stocks are expected to be the largest ever at 2.313 billion, up from the previous high of 2.276 billion in December of 2001. Supply and demand revisions are expected to limited with the average trade carryover estimate at 466 million bushels compared to previous 460 million estimate.



The average winter wheat acreage estimate is for a slightly decrease, but some look for a slightly higher number. The average guess from a Dow Jones survey is for winter wheat acreage to be 43.22 million acres, down from 43.35 last season. The HRW crop is expected to grow, but that will be countered by a decrease in SRW acreage. December 1 stocks are expected to come in at 1.425 billion bushels, down from 1.520 a year-ago. Few changes are expected to the 2004-05 balance sheet after USDA already raised their export figure in December to 1 billion bushels.