Grain futures were lower overnight ahead of the 7:30 a.m. export sales report and the 11:00 a.m. World Supply and Demand Report (WASDE). Trade estimates are -50,000 for old-crop corn and 350,000 to 600,000 tonnes for new crop while the average forecast for 2015/16 U.S. corn yield is 167.6 bushels, compared to the Aug WASDE of 168.8 bushels. Weekly ethanol figures came in at 958,000 barrels per day, 3% over a year ago, compared to the USDA expectation that this year’s increase would be 1%. The Dow closed .47% higher Thursday while the Shanghai Composite closed .08% higher Friday and the U.S. Dollar index is .22% stronger. Financial markets await the Fed rate meeting next Wed, 16 Sep. December corn futures were 0.25 cents lower to $3.74/bushel early Friday morning, while March moved 0.25 cents lower at $3.8525.
Soybean futures firmed early Friday and may be set for first weekly gain in a month after diving to six-year lows. Consensus has formed that the USDA will cut soybean yields but that the revision lower may be nominal in light of the steady crop rating. While some premiums from the expected revision lower may be baked into the trade, macro conditions are still a key indicator to market response. Exports sales expectations for soybeans are -50,000 tonnes for old crop and 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 tonnes for new crop. Tuesday, Sep 15, traders will see if NOPA will report yet a fourth record month of U.S. soybean crush. November futures were 2.25 cents higher to $8.7625/bushel early Friday, while October soyoil lost 0.04 cents to 26.91 cents/pound and October meal was $1.9 higher at $309.90/ton.
The wheat complex was lower overnight as the macro markets are weighing commodities to start the week. STATS Canada will issue their all-wheat stocks report Thursday with trade estimates falling to 6.5 million tonnes, down 37% from a year ago. The trade awaits the release of export inspections data released mid-morning Monday as well the September WASDE due out a week from this Friday. September CBOT wheat futures lost 3 cents to $4.74/bushel early Monday, while Sep KC wheat fell 1.25 cents to $4.565/bushel, and September MWE dropped 0.5 cents to $4.90.
Live cattle futures sank with most of the livestock complex Thursday, marking the second day of losses for the protein. Cattle futures fell despite cash beef values turning higher, with choice up .31 to 239.47 and select up .05 to 228.70. Cattle prices during the first week in September fell below July for the first time in eleven years. So far this week, cattle slaughter was estimated at 344,000 head , compared to 439,000 for the same period last week, and 460,000 a year ago. October cattle were .05 cents lower at 142.95 cents/pound Thursday, while December cattle were 0.47 cents lower at 144.70. October feeder cattle were 0.20 cents lower at 198.37 cents/pound while January feeders lost 0.25 at 190.10.
Lean hog futures retreated Thursday and cash values continued to drop. Cash hogs values were .23 cents lower to 66.41 cent/pound, as buyer interests slows down, post-Holiday. Aside from a possible uptick during October for national hog month, hogs will approach the season of higher supply and lower demand. This Saturday’s kill, to make up for lost slaughter on Labor Day, is estimated to be 305,000 head, compared to 63,000 over the three-day weekend. The lean hog index lost 1.12% sliding to 73.92 and suggesting a breakdown in the cash market. The October contract is now trading well above both the 50 and 100 day moving averages and 2 cents below the 200-day, suggesting a possible resistance level. October hog futures lost 0.37 cents at 68.55 cents/pound Thursday, while Dec hogs fell .05 to 63.55 and May fell 0.25 cents to 76.20.
Cotton futures began the week higher Monday despite Chinese stocks closing lower, perhaps on month-end positioning. The tighter than expected balance sheet for cotton and the drop in the condition rating have given cotton bulls something to talk about as of late but world market problems are now the driver. While the global scene for cotton is largely still plagued by oversupply, the recent bullish data appears to be giving way to world economic and currency struggles, particularly related to Chinese demand fears. December cotton futures lost .13 cents to 63.13 cents/pound Friday, while March rose 0.17 cents to 62.85.