The grain and oilseed markets were lower early Tuesday morning ahead of the Grain Stocks report due out at 11:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday. The average trade estimate for Sep 1 corn stocks is 1.739 billion bushels, compared to 1.232 billion bushels reported last year by the USDA. The crop progress report Monday showed corn harvest at 18%, compared to 10% last week and the 23% five-year average. This was below analyst’s expectations of the crop being 21% complete. The crop condition rating stayed steady from last week at 68%, compared to 74% this time last year. Dow futures were up 57 points and the Shanghai Composite closed 2.06% lower Tuesday. December corn futures fell 0.75 cents at $3.86/bushel early Monday, while March slid 0.75 cents to $3.9725.
Beans and meal were lower overnight while soyoil firmed. U.S. exporters sold 1 million tonnes of soybeans to China for 2016/17 on Monday. The soybean crop condition rating dropped, in Monday afternoon’s report, by 1 point from last week to 62% good to excellent, compared to 72% last year. Harvest was stated to be 21% complete, compared to 7% last week and the 16% five year average and was in line with expectations. The average trade estimate for Sep 1 grain stocks, due out Wednesday at 11:00 a.m. CD, is .205 billion bushels, compared to .092 billion bushels reported by the USDA for Sep 1, 2014. Some rain in the 6 to 10 day NOAA outlook might delay harvest in some areas. November soybeans dropped 0.5 cents to $8.7625/bushel Tuesday, while October soyoil moved 0.16 cents higher to 27.34 cents/pound and October meal lost $1.5 to $303.20/ton.
The wheat complex was lower overnight as the macro markets are weighing commodities to start the week. STATS Canada will issue their all-wheat stocks report Thursday with trade estimates falling to 6.5 million tonnes, down 37% from a year ago. The trade awaits the release of export inspections data released mid-morning Monday as well the September WASDE due out a week from this Friday. September CBOT wheat futures lost 3 cents to $4.74/bushel early Monday, while Sep KC wheat fell 1.25 cents to $4.565/bushel, and September MWE dropped 0.5 cents to $4.90.
Live cattle futures closed mixed on Monday after surging dramatically last Friday. The cattle trade continues to be volatile as the cash markets try working through the feedlot bottleneck, caused by record-high cattle weights, by slowing the rate of placements. October cattle fell by 1.3% Monday as futures still sit well below moving averages. Cattle slaughter started the week out at 112,000 head, compared to 113,000 head last week and 116,000 head this time last year. Cash beef values continue to drop with choice down 2.62 to 212.23 and select down 1.82 to 209.80. October cattle moved 1.80 cents lower to 132.17 cent/pound at the close Monday, while February cattle were .50 cent higher to 138.12 cents/pound.
The lean hog market was mostly higher Monday, except for the nearby futures month of October. Last Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report fell in line with expectations for the most part, confirming the large supply of market ready hogs that need to work through the system over the next few weeks, explaining why October futures traded lower. The weight breakdown in the report also suggested a 9.5% increase in hogs over 180 lbs. The lean hog index fell .02 to 71.81, showing that cash hogs are still at a slight premium to futures. October hog futures lost 0.02 cents at 71.81 cents/pound Monday , while December hogs gained 0.07 to 65.75.
Cotton futures began the week higher Monday despite Chinese stocks closing lower, perhaps on month-end positioning. The tighter than expected balance sheet for cotton and the drop in the condition rating have given cotton bulls something to talk about as of late but world market problems are now the driver. While the global scene for cotton is largely still plagued by oversupply, the recent bullish data appears to be giving way to world economic and currency struggles, particularly related to Chinese demand fears. December cotton futures lost .13 cents to 63.13 cents/pound Friday, while Mar rose 0.17 cents to 62.85.