Doane's 2015 Planting Intentions Survey was released to subscribers and clients Friday, March 20th. Results from this year's survey show a continuation of recent trends toward more soybeans and less corn acreage. Last year's corn acreage declined significantly in 2014, down 4.8 million acres from the 2013 level, just a bit more than the 4.5 million acre decline implied by Doane's 2014 survey results and more accurate than USDA's March Prospective Plantings report last year which showed only a 3.7 million acre decline.

The 2015 results show another big decline in corn acreage in the works for this year, to 87 million acres which is the lowest level since 2009. While traders are expecting a slight drop in 2015 based on USDA's preliminary estimate of 89 million acres at its February Outlook Forum, the Doane survey would most likely prove bullish if confirmed by USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report.

Soybean acreage on the other hand will rise sharply according to Doane survey results, which imply national acreage of a record 87 million acres, with largest increases percentage-wise for the Northern Plains states. The Doane survey results imply a significant increase in sorghum acreage this year.

While some forecasts show significant year-over-year declines in total crop acreage planted to the principle crops for 2015, Doane results suggest otherwise. Expected declines for corn, cotton, and winter wheat acreage will be offset with more acres of sorghum, barley, durum wheat, soybeans, sunflower, canola and hay. For more information regarding the results below, please contact Doane Operations Manager Dan Manternach at 314-372-3519 or Chief Economist Rich Pottorff at 507-529-7547.

 

 

2014 actual planted acres (USDA) mil acres

2015 USDA outlook forum forecasts mil acr

2015 Doane survey (implied) mil acr

USDA Outlook implied % change 15vs14

Doane survey implied % change 15vs14

ALL FEEDGRAINS

103.433

103.000

101.079

-0.400

-2.300

       Corn

90.597

89.000

87.023

-1.800

-3.900

       * Sorghum

7.138

7.500

7.866

5.100

10.200

       * Barley

2.975

3.500

3.290

17.600

10.600

SOYBEANS

83.701

83.500

86.800

-0.200

3.700

ALL WHEAT

56.822

55.500

NA

-2.300

NA

    ** All winter

42.399

40.452

NA

-4.600

NA

  ** Hard red winter

30.491

29.469

NA

-3.300

NA

** Soft red winter

8.495

7.501

NA

-11.700

NA

** White winter

3.430

3.482

NA

1.500

NA

*** Other spring

13.025

NA

12.735

NA

-2.200

*** Durum

1.398

NA

2.308#

NA

65.100

COTTON

11.037

9.700

9.630

-12.100

-12.700

RICE

2.939

2.900

2.94#

-1.400

UNC

HAY

57.092

NA

57.800

NA

1.000

SUNFLOWER/CANOLA

3.265

NA

3.800

NA

16.400

'*USDA reported a total for minor feedgrains at the Outlook Conference rather than individual crop totals. So we present USDA's 2015 long-range acreage forecasts for sorghum, oats and barley.

'** From USDA's Winter Wheat Seedings report

'***USDA did not break out spring wheat and durum wheat at the annual Outlook Conference

'#Not enough survey returns to be reliable samples; Doane estimate only