Corn futures were mixed to start the week as the trade prepares for the November Supply/Demand report due out at 11 am CST, Tuesday. World corn ending stocks are projected at 188.7 million tonnes and U.S. corn ending stocks are forecast at 1.587l billion bushels. The production estimate is 13.556 billion bushels with yields at 168.0, according to a Dow Jones poll. Funds were net sellers of 8,835 contracts of corn. Strong jobs numbers Friday helped the dollar rally which has surged nearly 5% since mid-October, though the index was .30% lower this morning. December corn futures firmed 0.5 cents to $3.735/bushel early Monday morning, while March gained 0.5 cents to $3.82.
The soy complex moved higher overnight, presumably on a lower dollar and increased fund buying ahead of the WASDE. The World soybean ending stocks forecast came in at 85.1 million tonnes and U.S. ending-stocks were estimated at 429 million bushels. U.S. soybean production is projected to be 3.912 billion bushels with yields at 47.5 bu/ac. Signs are indicating so far that weather will be a non-issue for South American production. This afternoon’s crop progress report should show both the corn and bean harvest very near complete. January soybeans gained 4.75 cents to $8.76/bushel early Monday morning, while December soyoil rallied 0.17 cents to 28.21 cents/pound and December meal climbed $0.7 to $296.4.
Wheat futures posted a surprising comeback from midmorning lows. Given the generally bearish wheat market consensus based upon slow exports, today’s U.S. dollar surge seemed quite negative. However, after declining rather sharply in early morning trading, wheat futures staged a striking comeback. Traders may be thinking next Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report will reflect reduced global production forecasts in response to recent weather problems. Nearby Chicago slippage and gains in KC and MWE quotes also suggest unwinding of recent spreads. December CBOT wheat futures skidded 3.0 cents to $5.2325/bushel in late-Friday trading, while Dec KC wheat gained 4.25 cents to $4.9025, and December MWE rose 2.5 cents to $5.1875.
CME cattle traders may have been taking profits on short positions Friday. That is, after tumbling rather badly earlier this week, CME cattle futures closed higher. The modest gains seem rather extraordinary in the wake of midday reports of big beef and cash market losses. One might also assume the spot market losses had been anticipated by the earlier losses. December live cattle rebounded 0.52 cents to 134.92 cents/pound at their Friday settlement, while February futures edged up 0.25 to 137.15. In contrast, January feeder cattle declined 0.65 cents to 172.02 and March feeders tumbled 1.00 cent to 169.05.
Thursday’s late spot reports indicated afternoon quotes a good bit firmer than those posted at midsession, which gave hog futures a Friday morning boost. However, the U.S. dollar surge, talk of continued cash and wholesale weakness and persistent selling forced the nearby contacts lower once again. The fact that the CME index will likely plunge 1.81 cents to 64.61 cents/pound when officially quoted next Monday probably spurred fresh selling as well. December hog futures sagged 0.40 cents to 55.00 cents/pound as Friday’s Chicago session ended, but April hogs inched up 0.07 cents to 63.85.
ICE cotton futures gave back Thursday’s gains in early Friday action as the U.S. dollar vaulted upward and stocks sank in response to the monthly employment data. The numbers proved quite strong, thereby increasing the chances the Fed will boost interest rates next month. The combination of stock weakness and dollar strength is not at all favorable for the cotton market, since both hold negative implications for future apparel demand. Late-day stock gains did seem to reduce the pressure upon fiber values. December cotton futures ended Friday having slipped 0.29 cents to 61.66 cents/pound, while May cotton dropped 0.42 cents to 62.47.