Producers are switching more acres away from soybeans and toward corn than previously expected, two analysts tell U.S. Farm Report. The news is based on survey data and comes on the heels of Allendale’s 2016 acreage survey.
“It did affect the market a little bit on the soybeans,” says Bill Biedermann, Allendale, in an interview with “U.S. Farm Report” host Tyne Morgan. “There was a little bounce in response to that because soybean acreage did come down just a little bit from what most people were saying before. It’s going to be fairly close. Last year, we had 82.7 [million acres], this year we’re looking at 82.5 [million] or 82.6 million acres. When you translate that into carryover with trendline yield, you’re probably looking at a slight decline in carryover.”
In the past 30 to 60 days, he says, acreage plans have shifted as farmers dig into their numbers for the year ahead.
“What we’re hearing in our winter meeting circuit is more corn acres than we originally thought back in December, for example, post-harvest,” says Brian Basting, Advance Trading. “I think a lot of that’s being seen in the northern Plains, for example, even some of the rotations being tweaked a little bit in the Midwest, rotations that swung more toward soybeans when soybeans were very favorable the last couple of years, are swinging back toward corn. Not an aggressive increase, but more than we thought a month ago, for sure.”
Time and weather will tell whether those crop-mix switches pan out and, if so, how they will affect carryout.