Corn plantings could easily fall 1 million acres or even 2 million acres from previous USDA estimates when the agency publishes its Acreage report June 30. That’s according to Brad Matthews of Roach Ag Marketing.
“In the South, we were actually supposed to be planting less soybeans and more corn than what we have in previous years, and they were really wet early on in the season,” Matthews tells “AgDay” Agribusiness Update host Tyne Morgan. “I think you probably lost some acres there.”
Meanwhile, the corn-soybean ratio as of March 1 hit 2.32 and later peaked at 2.75, he says. “So [in] areas that didn’t have a lot of fertilizer on the ground, that were already delayed because of too much moisture, I think [farmers] seriously thought about switching to soybeans, and I think some of that took place,” Matthews says.
Near-term corn prices likely are headed lower after bumping up against a resistance area of about $4.20, he says. That doesn’t mean opportunities for higher prices won’t surface in the future, particularly in light of how summer weather shakes out.
“That $3.80 to $3.90 area off of corn is probably an area that it might try and retest by the beginning of July before we really get into summer weather,” Matthews says. “And at that point, all bets are off. It doesn’t take much to change the balance sheet on corn.”
That’s particularly true in light of better-than-expected demand for U.S. corn, a smaller South American crop than earlier estimates had predicted and money flow into the corn market by the funds.