Australia's largest wheat producing region is likely to receive ample rains during a crucial yield-setting stage, Australia's weather bureau said, potentially offsetting any damage from an intensifying El Nino weather event.

The chance of rainfall exceeding average levels in Western Australia between September and November was seen at 65 percent, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Thursday.

Western Australia is the country's largest grain producing and exporting state, typically accounting for about a third of the country's wheat crop.

Rain in September is a significant barometer of Australia's wheat production, as yields are determined during that period.

Benchmark wheat prices have fallen nearly 15 percent over the past 12 months due to ample global supplies, and could come under further pressure if Australia, the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter, can avoid any decline in output.

Forecasts for a major El Nino event had stoked expectations of a shortfall in Australian production, with some analysts estimating that a dry finish to the 2015/16 season could cut output to as low as 21 million tonnes, from 23.7 million tonnes last year.

But analysts said conditions have improved in several key regions in recent weeks and the forecast for favourable weather meant production was now likely to fall in line with recent years.

"If we get good spring rains we could get 23 million tonnes or even above that," said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank.

In June, Australia's chief commodity forecaster estimated wheat production at 23.598 million tonnes, although it warned that rains would be needed to avoid curbs to yields.