Wednesday stock market reversal seemed to depress commodities

After eventually following soybeans higher Wednesday, corn futures turned lower early Thursday morning. General weakness due to the big equity market reversal Wednesday afternoon and to talk that a hedge fund was being forced to liquidate positions may have weighed upon prices to some extent. News that Taiwan had recently bought 60,000 tonnes of Argentine corn probably didn’t help sentiment either. Still, the main driver of the overnight slide may simply have been the modest soybean decline. March corn slipped 1.5 cents to $6.99/bushel in the early morning hours, while December fell 2.5 cents to $5.59.

Soybeans had spiked upward during the three preceding sessions, but set back Wednesday night. There was not a great deal of news published overnight, so we suspect dwindling bullish momentum, the Wednesday equity index decline and prospects for widespread precipitation over domestic grain/soy fields during the next week weighed upon the market. The fact that bulls couldn’t push prices above their early February highs yesterday may also have triggered some technical selling. March soybeans dipped 2.5 cents to $14.8025 early Thursday morning, while March soyoil fell 0.44 cents to 51.63 cents/pound, whereas March meal edged $0.7 higher to $434.3/ton.

Wheat futures also followed soybeans higher Wednesday, but subsequently reversed course. There was little news concerning U.S. wheat, but one might easily blame the headline that Iran had bought 180,000 tonnes of Australian wheat for a portion of the overnight decline, since it reemphasized the fact that many international customers are not buying from the U.S. Of course, the storm now blanketing the Central Plains with a healthy cover of snow is probably encouraging bears as well. March CBOT wheat sank 4.25 cents to $7.3425/bushel in pre-dawn trading, while March KCBT wheat skidded 4.5 cents to $7.7275, and March MGE futures slid 2.25 cents to $8.185.

After dipping to fresh eight-month lows Wednesday, cattle futures rebounded in early Thursday morning trading. The fact that fed animals traded at steady prices around midday Wednesday may have encouraged some buying. Technicians may also think late rebound from the daily low signaled burgeoning support at current levels. We do not think the news was particularly significant, but traders may be buying in response to Wednesday evening news that an international panel recommended that the U.S. get the best rating for BSE risk in its cattle. April cattle bounced 0.47 cents to 128.70 cents/pound in overnight price action, while August gained 0.42 cents to 125.95. Meanwhile, March feeder cattle surged 0.67 cents to 141.40 cents/pound, and August climbed 0.55 cents to 154.35.

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