USDA: Soybean production forecast at 3.26 billion bushels

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Editor's note: The USDA did not released an October issue of their "Crop Production" or "World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates" report due to the federal shutdown.

In its latest “Crop Production” report, the USDA forecast soybean production at 3.26 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the September forecast and 7 percent higher than 2012.

Soybean Harvest Case IH If realized, production will be the third largest on record.

Yields are expected to be 3.2 bushels higher than last year, forecast at 43.0 bushels per acre.

Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, down 1 percent from both the previous forecast and last year.

The USDA explained in its “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate” report that while the harvested area for soybean was reduced, the higher yields and production forecast more than offset this reduction.

Soybean supplies for 2013-14 are projected 4 percent above the September estimate on both increased production and beginning stocks.

U.S. soybean exports for 2013-14 are raised 80 million bushels to 1.45 billion reflecting increased supplies and the record pace of sales through late October. Soybean crush is raised 30 million bushels to 1.685 billion mostly due to increased soybean meal exports.

Soybean ending stocks are projected at 170 million bushels, up 20 million from the September forecast.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2013/14 is projected at $11.15 to $13.15 per bushel, down $0.35 on both ends of the range.

The soybean meal price is projected at $375 to $415 per short ton, up $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 40 to 44 cents per pound, down 3 cents on both ends.

Global soybean production is projected at 283.5 million tons, up 1.9 million as the increase for the United States more than offsets reductions for India, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine.

Revisions to the world 2013/14 oilseed supply and demand estimates include reduced soybean exports and increased crush for Argentina and increased soybean exports for Brazil. Soybean crush is reduced for India and Russia on smaller supplies. Rapeseed exports are increased for Canada and Ukraine, while imports are raised for China. Global oilseed stocks for 2013/14 are reduced 0.5 million tons to 80.7 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with reduced stocks in Brazil more than offsetting gains in Argentina and the United States.

Click here to read more from the USDA’s WADE or Crop Production Report.

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