The Congressional Budget Office just stole USDA’s thunder
CBO projects $6.242 billion will be needed for 2013 crops, up from $5.06 billion in 2012. That is based on higher outlays for feed grains and wheat, specifically for direct payments. Those jump from $1.558 billion to $1.982 billion for corn, from $433 million to $560 million for soybeans, and from $865 million to $1.072 billion for wheat.
The CBO also projects higher outlays for conservation, rising from $4.692 billion in 2012 to $5.172 billion in 2013.
Crop Insurance costs
CBO is also forecasting the need for $15.999 billion in outlays for crop insurance indemnity payments for 2012 crops and along $10.139 billion for 2013 crops. While the loss ratio for 2013 is set at the theoretical $1 in and $1 out for premium payments and indemnity payments, the 2012 budget for crop insurance indicates a loss ratio of 1.45, or $1.45 out for each $1 premium payments. The CBO projects a total underwriting loss for the 2012 crop season at $12.504 billion.
For the 2013 cropping year, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting planted acreage at - corn 97.0 mil., soybeans 77.0 mil., and wheat 57.0 mil. The CBO yield forecast for 2013 is - corn 161.5, soy 43.5, wheat 45.5 bu/a. CBO’s forecast for ending stocks (Aug 2014) is - corn 1.852 bil, soy 281 mil, wheat 744 mil bu. CBO’s Projections for season average prices is - corn $4.51, soy $11.00, wheat $7.05.
Source: Farm Gate blog