Study: Corn price down less than 1% with RFS waiver
Contrary to the statements from livestock and poultry groups, a waiver of the RFS would not meaningfully increase the amount of corn available for feed use in 2012/13. FAPRI’s results show a waiver results in just 25 million more bushels of corn being fed to livestock, a 0.6 percent increase over the case where there is no waiver. Notably, it was recently confirmed that livestock operations in the southeastern United States have purchased 30 million bushels of corn imports from Brazil—more than the amount of corn that might become “available” to them domestically via a waiver of the RFS. The FAPRI study also found that supplies of important animal feed co-products generated by the biofuels industry, such as distillers grains, would fall marginally with a waiver and prices would rise. The report says lower corn prices would lead to slightly lower feed costs for livestock producers “unless offset by slightly higher soybean meal and distillers grain prices.”
The effect of a waiver on retail meat prices is imperceptible, the FAPRI results show. Retail beef prices are projected at $5.30 per pound with or without a waiver of the RFS. Retail pork prices might be reduced by one penny from $3.59 per pound to $3.58 per pound, a 0.04 percent reduction.