Soybean crop increases, but supply to dip to historic low
“Corn production will outpace stronger demand and that will likely result in lower prices, but those prices will help fuel the robust demand we see both domestically and abroad,” Davis explained.
Davis said 2012-2013 ending stocks for the domestic corn supply will be at 1.88 billion bushels. That is an increase of more than 1 billion bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to increase to 13.7 percent, which is the largest since 2009-2010. Davis said that because of the large increase in corn stocks, the U.S. marketing-year average price is projected to decline sharply to $4.60 per bushel, compared to the 2011-2012 price of $6.10 per bushel.
But there was a little surprise in the latest report, according to Davis.
“There was a curveball regarding old-crop corn,” Davis said. “The May report actually increased ending stocks of last year’s crop by 50 million bushels. This came as a fairly significant surprise, as pre-report estimates projected a decline in stocks due to stronger demand. According to the report, that demand never materialized because the amount of corn used for feed was reduced by 50 million bushels to reflect a greater use of wheat in feed rations.”