Soy, cotton futures lagged the other ag markets Tuesday

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Talk of prospective rainfall sparked Tuesday’s corn bounce. Midwest farmers are likely to plant corn very actively this week, anticipation of which seemed to depress CBOT futures Monday night. However, the latest forecasts are pointing toward increased rainfall next week. That implies persistently slow plantings and diminished harvest prospects. July corn rallied 9.5 cents to $5.175/bushel at its Tuesday settlement, while December rose 9.5 cents to $5.095.

Forecasts for increased bean imports undercut the soy complex. The U.S. soy situation remains very tight and current prospects for fall don’t look a great deal better, since plantings seem likely to be significantly delayed once again. However, traders were apparently persuaded that inflows of South American and Canadian beans will accelerate during the coming weeks, thereby undercutting old crop prices. July soybeans fell 3.75 cents to $14.595/bushel in closing Tuesday trading, while July soyoil skidded 0.06 cents to 41.11 cents/pound, and July soymeal sank $1.2 to $477.5/ton.

Wheat futures rebounded on weather and war concerns. Southern Plains weather still looks too hot and the Black Sea situation hasn’t improved, so it wasn’t terribly surprising to see wheat futures rebound from overnight losses Tuesday. Concurrent U.S. dollar weakness also looked supportive. July CBOT wheat futures climbed 10.0 cents to $7.39/bushel to end Tuesday’s session, while July KCBT wheat futures surged 13.75 cents to $8.4575, and July MWE futures jumped 15.5 to $8.0475.

Prospects for an early-May bounce may have supported cattle futures. Although the cattle market traditionally declines through the second quarter, grocers also tend to buy beef aggressively during the first half of May as they gear up for Memorial Day features. Rising wholesale values encouraged those ideas today. June cattle rallied 0.77 cents to 138.30 cents/pound as Tuesday’s pit session ended, while December gained 0.70 cents at 144.62. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle soared 1.45 cents to 191.25 cents/pound, and October leapt 1.52 cents to 192.20.

Hogs backed away from early highs. After having fallen sharply since peaking in early April, cash hog and wholesale pork values seemed to stabilize late last week. Sizeable, Monday afternoon gains sparked strong CME gains this morning. However, the midsession reports implied cash and pork prices sharply lower once again, thereby pulling futures well below their early highs. June hog futures closed 0.87 cents higher at 123.22 cents/pound Tuesday, while December slipped 0.05 cents to 94.95.

Demand concerns seemingly weighed on cotton futures Tuesday. As with the other crops, Monday’s weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated cotton plantings running well behind normal. That news, along with overnight U.S. dollar losses looked supportive of ICE futures, but those declined in concert with the soy complex. Ultimately, doubts about future Chinese demand seemed to weigh on fiber values. July cotton tumbled 0.77 cents to 93.98 cents/pound in late Tuesday action, while December cotton slumped 0.41 to 84.12.


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