Soy complex is down, other ag markets mixed

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The Crop Progress report is weighing on corn futures. Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report on corn conditions at a rating that tied 2010 for the best mid-June reading on records going back to 1994. Of course, much depends upon weather during the July pollination period, but conditions are obviously very favorable at present. July corn dropped 2.75 cents to $4.3825/bushel late Tuesday morning, while December slid 3.0 cents to $4.39.

Old-crop futures are leading the soy complex lower. The Crop Progress report stated U.S. soybean conditions at a record high for mid-June, which rather obviously bodes well for the fall crop and bearishly for new-crop prices. However, diminished short-term conditions are apparently causing old-crop prices to lead the way lower. July soybeans dove 22.0 cents to $13.9975/bushel shortly before midday Tuesday, while July soyoil sank 0.11 cents to 39.39 cents/pound, while July soymeal fell $7.0 to $455.4/ton.

Wheat markets proved surprisingly firm Tuesday morning. The Crop Progress report indicated good spring wheat conditions, while winter wheat ratings were unchanged at depressed levels. Those data didn’t seem very supportive, but prices at all three exchanges have risen. Worries about moisture damage to winter wheat may be boosting prices, along with the overnight cut in Australian export estimates. July CBOT wheat futures rose 2.75 cents to $5.8375/bushel around midsession Tuesday, while July KCBT wheat bounced 2.75 cents to $7.11 and July MWE futures gained 2.25 to $6.8225.

Surging beef values are supporting cattle futures. The cattle market paused Monday in the wake of last week’s big gains, but is proving quite firm again today. That likely marks a response to Monday’s big gains in beef cutout values. However, traders likely expect seasonal weakness to reassert itself later the week as grocers complete purchases for Independence Day features, which is moderating the CME response. August cattle climbed 0.22 cents to 146.67 cents/pound late Tuesday morning, while December added 0.02 to 151.72. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle moved up 0.25 cents to 208.95 and October rose 0.05 to 209.62.

Monday’s cash hog and pork news are likely spurring CME buying. The cash hog and wholesale pork markets climbed Monday, which is apparently encouraging bulls to buy nearby futures. But negative technical action and large premiums already built into futures are limiting the Chicago reaction. August hog futures advanced 0.07 cents to 128.35 as lunchtime loomed Tuesday, while December edged up 0.17 cents to 96.35.

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