Small grains report insight

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In the latest USDA estimate, 2013 wheat production is now put at 2.128 billion bushels, up 14 million bushels from USDA’s August last estimate of 2.114 billion, even though wheat acreage for 2013 was adjusted downward, to 56.2 million planted compared to the previous figure of 56.5 million and acres harvested were adjusted downward to 45.2 million from the previous estimate of 45.7 million.

USDA raised the final average yield estimate for all wheat to a record 47.1 bushels per acre, up from the August estimate of 46.2 bushels.

Recalling the horrible winter wheat condition ratings for much of the year, the record high overall wheat yield is surprising. However, the data show year-over-year yields down in the hard red producing states of Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska.

Private trade estimates for wheat production ahead of the report averaged 2.108 billion, or 6 million bushels below USDA’s previous estimate. In the class-by-class breakout of the Small Grains Summary, USDA dropped hard red winter wheat production by 47 million bushels but raised soft red production by 23 million bushels. Spring wheat production was raised by 57 million bushels and durum production was boosted by 1.5 million bushels over the WASDE estimates.

USDA lowered 2013 oats production by 9.2 million bushels from the August estimate to 66 million bushels as lower harvested acreage more than offset a slightly higher yield. The yield is estimated at 64.0 bushels per acre, up from 62.9 million previously. Harvested acreage is down 165,000 from the August estimate and down 14,000 from 2012 to 1.031 million acres. September oats stocks are 63.4 million bushels, down 21.6 million from a year ago.

Barley production is now estimated at 215 million bushels, down 2.5 million from last month. A one bushel increase in the yield to 71.7 bushels per acre was more than offset by a 75,000 acre cut in harvested acreage which is now pegged at 3 million acres, down 480,000 from 2012. Barley stocks as of September 1 are 196.4 million bushels, down only 300,000 bushels from a year ago.

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