Projecting crop production and trade for the next decade
- Global trade in soybeans and soybean products has risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has surpassed global trade in wheat and total coarse grains. Continued strong growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, particularly in China and other Asian countries, is expected to maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse grain trade throughout the next decade.
- World soybean trade is projected to rise rapidly during the next 10 years, but at a slower pace than in recent years, climbing nearly 39 million tons (37 percent), to 144 million tons.
- China’s soybean imports have risen sharply and now account for more than half of world trade. Over the coming decade, China will face policy decisions regarding the tradeoffs between producing and importing corn and soybeans. The projections assume that Chinese policies will pursue increasing corn production and letting soybean imports increase to fill the shortfall in domestic production.
- World coarse grain trade is projected to increase 27 percent between 2013/14 and 2022/23. During this period, corn is expected gain an increasing share of world coarse grain trade. The expansion of livestock production in feed-deficit countries continues to be the principal driver.
- China’s imports of corn are projected to rise steadily and reach 19.6 million tons by 2022/23. China’s strengthening domestic demand for corn is driven by its expanding livestock and industrial sectors.
- U.S. corn exports are projected to rebound in 2013/14 and then trend upward to a record high by 2022/23. However, the U.S. share of world corn exports only rises to 46 percent, well below the 65 percent average share during the two decades preceding 2010/11.
- World wheat trade (including flour) is projected to expand by 22 million tons (16 percent) between 2013/14 and 2022/23, rising to nearly 164 million tons. Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing countries where income and population gains drive increases in demand.
Source: FarmGate blog