New university analysis: No changes needed to 2014 RFS
The analysis found that if EPA set the 2014 requirement for renewable fuel at 14.4 billion gallons, and no new E85 or E15 stations were added, RIN prices could be expected to average 69 cents each. However, adding 500 additional E85 stations in 2014 would reduce RIN prices to just 18 cents apiece.
“This drop in RIN price represents more than a $7 billion drop in the total value of RINs that would be used for compliance in 2014. The cost of adding the addition stations would be $65 million,” according to the report. “This dramatic decrease in the total cost of RINs from adding new E85 stations is what gives EPA the tool they need to incentivize the investments that would facilitate expanded ethanol mandates.”
In closing, the authors express bewilderment over the intent of the proposed rule, stating, “…it would be difficult to interpret EPA’s proposed fundamental shift in policy as anything except a reduction in overall support for biofuels, however nuanced one might want to interpret the intent of the proposed rule.”
The new paper, along with several other recent analyses on the RFS, is available on the CARD web site.
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