Managing weather and marketing risk in 2013

USDA last Friday issued a wealth of information in its reports on the final estimate of the 2012 crops, the grain stocks we have on hand, how it is being used, and what will be left when the 2013 crop is ready for harvest.   But developing a marketing plan for that, in the face of uncertain weather will be a challenge. 

What are those weather facts that will be so critical?

The major headline from the USDA's Supply and Demand Report was that corn was being fed to livestock at a great rate than the market anticipated.

Another bullet point was that corn exports will fall below one billion bushels for the first time since the 1970’s, compared two and a half billion bushels just a few years ago.  But corn carryout at the end of August will be as low as it can get.

Marketing

USDA projects season average prices for corn as $6.80 to $8.00, and $13.50 to $15 for soybeans.  We are in the low end of that range now after spending most of the marketing year so far in the upper end.

click image to zoom Much of the consensus among those watching the grain market is that the 2012 crop corn and soybeans will have a very tight and volatile cash market with some spot shortages and a strong basis. 

As the South American crop gets closer to harvest, November 2013 crop prices will continue to fade with the potential for lower prices than last year when the crop insurance guarantee is established in February.  While beans will be in demand, overall prices will be lower.

Weather risk

As many farmers revise their marketing plan for both the old and new crops, weather will be a critical aspect for the 2013 growing season.

The drought continues according to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey with 61% of the US in a drought category, down from the 65% in September.  click image to zoomWhen the US Cornbelt was in the height of the drought at the end of July, El Nino teased us late in the summer and fall, and then departed. However, it provided needed moisture for the eastern half of the Cornbelt from Ohio to Illinois. From Illinois on west, the conditions have worsened. But he says the region experiencing the worst drought category has expanded to 6.75% of the US, as reflected by the latest issue of the University of Nebraska Drought Monitor. 

Currently, drought encompasses over 2/3 of the US cattle inventory and 60% of domestic hay acreage.  The wheat crop is rated poor to very poor for 61% of OK, 49% of NE, and 31% of KS.  Rippey says the Palmer Drought Index in July was 62.1%, second only to the 79.9% in the July 1934 Dust Bowl era.