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Long liquidation, weak demand pressures grain complex

Doane Advisory Services  |   October 15, 2012
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Corn futures closed the electronic trading session lower on Monday. Corn futures closed decisively lower after a sharp rally in prices last week. Long liquidation and spillover selling in the soy complex weighed on market prices. USDA’s crop progress report is scheduled to be released this afternoon at 3pm and is expected to show 80 percent of the corn harvested versus 69 percent the previous week. December corn closed 16 cents lower.

Soybean futures closed the electronic trading session lower on Monday. Soybean futures closed sharply lower, declining 2 percent from the session’s close. Futures were pressured by long liquidation as well as moderate losses in the palm oil market. Disappointing export demand and speculation of a robust South American soybean crop kept prices at bay while limiting upside movement. USDA’s crop progress report is scheduled to be released this afternoon at 3pm and is expected to show 71 percent of new crop soybeans harvested versus 58 percent the previous week. November futures closed 29 cents lower.

Wheat futures closed the electronic trading session lower on Monday. Poor export demand for U.S. wheat proves to be worrisome for the market. Futures plunged on spillover pressure from the other grain markets coupled with lackluster demand for domestic wheat. Losses were not a stark as the losses in the corn and soy markets; however futures reportedly closed at a two month low to start the week. December wheat at CBOT closed 8 ½ cents lower, KCBT closed 9 cents lower; while MGE closed 3 ¼ cents lower.

Live cattle futures closed higher on Monday. Live cattle futures garnered strength after trading mixed throughout the session. The significant jump in midday wholesale beef prices helped to push futures higher. Choice beef cuts were reported $2.22 cents higher while select cuts were reported up $1.79 higher. Traders are optimistic concerning this week’s cash trade. Cash prices are called steady to higher versus the previous week’s trade. December futures closed 48 cents higher while February futures closed 53 cents higher.

Lean hog futures closed mixed but mostly lower on Monday. The December contract moved to the forefront as October futures contract expired on Friday. Bear spreading after the close of the October contract last week sparked buying interest in the new leading contract; hence its support during today’s trading session. Deferred contracts posted marginal to moderate losses today with the actively watched June 2013 contract closing 83 cents lower. The July contract closed a down $1.07. Weakness in the grain complex produced these sharp losses and traders fear herd liquidations will be limited due to declining feed costs. December futures closed 18 cents higher while February futures closed 8 cents lower.


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