Grain and soybean markets rebounded Thursday morning

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Corn futures are about 2 cents higher this morning after seven days of lower closes which carried new-crop December futures below $4.00 per bushel first time since July 2010. The weather forecast for the next week to ten days calls for below normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation, which is nearly ideal for corn pollination. USDA will update supply/demand projections for the U.S. and world on Friday at 11 AM CDT. Trade expects USDA to boost 13/14 ending stocks by about 85 million bushels to 1.232 billion and 14/15 ending stocks by 50 million to 1.774 billion. New crop S/D will hinge largely on 2014 yield estimate. USDA usually doesn’t revise the yield up in July, however, the market is already thinking higher than USDA’s current 165.3 bushel yield. Weekly export sales for old and new crop combined are expected to come in from 30 to 35 million bushels. September corn is 2 cents higher to $3.9325/bushel while December is 2 cents higher to $4.00.

The soybean market also rebounded in overnight trading after sharply declines in the past several days. However, the market is still under pressure as recent beneficial weather conditions raised traders’ expectations for output. Asian palm oil gains seemingly boosted soyoil. Demand is likely to start to pick up as prices moved sharply lower. China customs reported its June soybean imports up 7% from last month to 6.39 mmt. August soybeans gained 11.25 cents to $12.5775/bushel, and November rose 8.75 cents to $11.125. August soyoil surged 0.25 cents to 37.39 cents/pound, while August soymeal ascended $4.5 to $410.6/ton.

Wheat futures rallied in concert with corn and soybean with mostly higher quotes in early Thursday morning. However, the downward pressure is adding to the markets due to surging output and uncertain demand. USDA will issue their first spring and durum wheat production estimates of the season and update winter wheat production as well Friday. Analysts are expecting USDA to boost all wheat production to 1.972 billion bushels from June forecast at 1,943 million bushels with spring and durum wheat at 544 million and 59 million respectively. The increase in production would also boost the ending stocks projection. September CBOT wheat futures added 4.00 cents to $5.5525 bushel, September KCBT wheat futures advanced 5.25 cents to $6.575/bushel and September MWE futures jumped 4.75cents to $6.52.

Cattle futures are mixed in early trade Thursday. Cattle futures were down sharply on Wednesday as profit-taking and fund long liquidation pressured the market. Futures were down as much as the 3 cent daily limit before a late session recovery prevented a limit down close. Cattle futures are finding some support this morning from the cash market. Light cash trade was reported in Nebraska on Wednesday at $157 to $158/cwt, steady to $1 lower from last week’s record high prices. August futures should find near-term support since it’s already at a $6 to $7 discount to the recent cash trade. The cutouts were mixed on Wednesday. The Choice cutout was 59 cents higher to $250.57/cwt while Select was down 36 cents to $242.26. August live cattle are 0.10 cents higher at 150.90 cents/pound while December is 0.35 cents lower to 153.70 cents. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle are 1.20 cents lower to 212.40 cents/pound.

Hog futures were mixed Thursday morning. Rising supplies seemingly undermined the market. Although the cash hog and wholesale pork markets moved higher, traders seem to becoming increasingly worried about the potential for surging supplies during the days ahead. Rising weights certainly seem to be pointing in that direction. August hog futures were down 1.05 cents at 128.55 cents/pound and December was down 0.975 cents to 104.475 cents.

The cotton futures proved vulnerable overnight. Talk that USDA is widely expected to boost 14/15 US cotton supply prospects probably undercut the cotton market. In addition, the concurrent US currency strength very likely had a negative impact. Additional pressure stemmed from the latest declines in most equity index values. December cotton lost 0.17 cent to 69.5 cents per pound. March cotton skidded 0.26 cents at 71.37 cents/lb.


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