Global and domestic wheat stocks will be plentiful
The soft red wheat states in the Eastern Cornbelt say their crop is even better, “2012 crop averages 73 percent rated good to excellent and only 5 percent poor to very poor. Last year at this time, the average percent rated good to excellent for these States was 66 percent with 7 percent poor to very poor. Among these States, Ohio’s crop is in the most difficult situation, with 50 percent rated good to excellent and 17 percent rated poor to very poor.”
Globally, the supply of wheat is down slightly, with slight changes in the supply and demand. Total world ending stocks are down 3.3 mil. tons. With a lower carry-in for the new marketing year, and a 2 mil. tons higher rate of consumption, there are expectations for a lower carryout at the end of the new crop’s marketing year. Wheat fed to livestock will be up for the 2012 marketing year due to lower prices for wheat, relative to corn. USDA says meat production is driving that truck, “Foreign wheat feeding is up 21 million tons, or nearly 20 percent, on the year, while foreign coarse grain feeding is up about 15 million tons, or less than 3 percent on the year. A striking example is China where wheat feeding is projected up 6.5 million tons (or 50 percent) on the year while corn feeding is projected up only 3.0 million tons (or 2 percent) on the year.”
U.S. wheat stocks will be sufficient, and will supply cattle with feed. Global stocks will also be plentiful, but will be tapped for cattle feeding.